Doc-topus's World Cup Final Preview

9 Jul 2010

Hello Gurus around the world!

I am Doc-topus, nice to meet you (shakes hands eight times, or four times if I do your two hands at the same time).

I'm glad to have been given this opportunity to stretch my legs in the world of soccer predicting. For a long time we haven't been given the chance to display our talent for guessing games but thanks to Paul the Psychic Octopus our time has come, and having sat at the back of the tank wondering why my owner The Doc made such crazy predictions (like backing Serbia to qualify for the knock-out stages and England to beat Algeria by three or four goals) I think it's about time I escaped and had a go at this preview/prediction malarkey.

We don't have games like SportGuru in the sea but if we did I'm sure it would, ahem, catch on, though we would need enough mussels and oysters to help us with our predictions. Octopuses are a sucker for these games and enjoy wrapping themselves around the world of soccer (Pun Ed - That's a few too many Octopus puns, watch it!).

Our least favourite team is probably Japan, as people over there tend to enjoy catching and eating us, which isn't nice; as far as players are concerned we like Cristiano R-oct-aldo and Didier Dr-oct-ba (Pun Ed - I warned you!) but they didn't do too well did they? Anyway, enough of me and on with the preview.

Doc-topus's Special Bit Of Kn-oct-ledge

My research tells me that since 1982 one semi-final has provided the winner of both the final and the third-place Play-Oct (Pun Ed - ENOUGH!) on five occasions. This isn't too revelatory but given that Germany and Spain played each other and both are favourites then the sensible bet would be to back them for wins.

Germany won third place in 2006 after losing to Italy (the eventual winners) in the semi-final; Turkey edged out South Korea in 2002 following defeat to Brazil (the eventual winners); in 1998 Croatia earned third spot after losing to France (the eventual winners) and in 1994 Sweden finished third having lost to Brazil in the semi-finals (who also ended up winning). The other occasion was in 1982 when Poland won third spot, after losing to the 2006 Champions Italy.

So, lovers of trends should probably pick the winners of both games from one semi-final but then my owner The Doc loved bringing up stats and sometimes he was completely wrong, wasn't he Gurus? (The Doc - Oi, I let you have the chance to write this article, it's not a chance for you to slag me off)

Uruguay versus Germany

As far as the number of goals are concerned history suggests that this game, unlike the showpiece final, is the one where teams tend to let go and cut loose. Three or more goals have been scored in every one of these games since 1978 and five of the Play-Octs (Pun Ed - I give in) have had four or more goals.

Germany have legged off with wins against Uruguay (Pun Ed - you're pushing it now, honestly) from six of their nine previous encounters. And as far as the betting (Pun Ed - don't you even think about it) octs are concerned Joechim Low's side are the favourites at 4/5 on Octschecker.com, compared to Uruguay's 4/1.

The South Americans will welcome back Diego Suarez, he of the handball against Ghana, and skipper Diego Leg-ano and Jorge Fucile - Diego Forlan may miss the game though with a thigh injury. Germany welcome back Thomas Mueller, though injury doubts circle Miroslav Klose, Philip Lahm and Lukas Podolski.

In the Guru World, 88% of you reckon Germany will beat Uruguay with just 11% backing Forlan and co.

Netherlands versus Spain

As most of you know, a new World Cup winner will be crowned on Sunday and for this Doc-topus is going to suck on one of his favourite mussels in celebration, as he has a particular tasting for the players these countries have in their ranks. Spain boast the likes of Joan Capture-vila, Xabi Al-oct-so and Pedro Rodrig-legs while Netherlands can count on Arjen R-oct-en, Giovanni Van Br-oct-horst and Leg-ory Van Der Wiel (Pun Ed - It's okay, it'll be over soon).

Both teams have never met in the World Cup before and in all their other matches they share an even record, having won a quartet of games each, with a draw the other result. On Octschecker.com Spain are considered the favourites on 6/5 compared to Netherlands' 11/4 and in Guru-world you are favouring Spain, with 60% going for them compared to the 40% who are backing the Dutch.

There have been a paltry eight goals in the last five finals, a statistic which will probably provoke the thinking Guru's Guru into going for a low-scoring game, especially when we consider that Spain have the competition's meanest defence. However before 1990 only two finals in the competition's history finished with three goals or less so maybe this will be the year when we get a goal-scoring classic - though France's win in 1998 was quite entertaining, and who can forget Zizou's headbutt four years ago!

Netherlands will have Nigel de Jong and Gregory Van Der Wiel back for the final and thankfully there are no injuries affecting any of the major players so far.

I'm going to return to the back of my tank and get some shut-eye before the weekend, incidentally my buddie Paul has gone for Germany and Spain in the two games so there's an extra reason to back them.

***Remember that win points in the final are worth three points and the third place Play-Off is worth two points so big point swings are still eminently possible in your pools***